[转帖]PS3售价$399每台将亏损95美金(含翻译)

Report: PS3 to sell for $399, cost $494 to make

Merrill Lynch Japan predicts Sony will lose more than $1 billion on hardware during its next-gen console's first year on the market--a sum it may not be able to recoup.
According to the latest issue of Japanese magazine Toyo Keizai, Merrill Lynch Japan Securities has recently calculated an analysis that the production of a single PlayStation 3 console will cost Sony approximately 54,000 yen to make ($494), as of its initial release in 2006.

Merrill Lynch Japan estimates that the machine's main components--namely its Cell chip, RSX, and BD-ROM drive--will cost about 11,000 yen ($101) each. After adding the other electronics that will be used in the PS3, the machine's production cost goes up to 54,000 yen.

Given that Sony's PS3 will face stiff competition from Microsoft's Xbox 360, the chances that Sony will release its console at its production cost is slim. Under the assumption that the Xbox 360 is expected to sell at around $299, Merrill Lynch Japan predicts that Sony will sell each PS3 at the price of 44,800 yen ($410) in Japan and $399 in America. That would mean Sony would suffer a loss of more than 130 billion yen ($1.18 billion) during the first year of the PS3's release.

By comparison, the PlayStation 2 cost 39,800 yen ($364) in Japan and $299 in America when it launched in 2000. During its first year of release, Sony Computer Entertainment suffered a loss of 51.1 billion yen ($458 million), but it recovered the next year with a profit of 82.9 billion yen ($759 million), followed by 112.6 billion yen ($1.03 billion) the year after.

It is normal for game companies to take a loss on hardware whenever a new console launches, since they typically focus on acquiring market share rather than generating a profit during the first year. During the second year and afterward, they can recover the losses with the savings that come from mass production and with licensing fees from publishers.

However, Merrill Lynch Japan warns that the normal console business cycle may be disrupted if Microsoft cuts the Xbox 360's price when the PlayStation 3 launches. The report goes on to say that such a move could hurt Sony's plans, bringing an additional loss of 80 billion yen ($730 million) in its second year and 50 billion yen ($457 million) in its third year. Thus far, Sony has already invested 200 billion yen ($1.83 billion) into development and production for the Cell chip alone.

Toyo Keizai goes on to interview Sony Computer Entertainment president Ken Kutaragi, who avoided revealing the PS3's price but hinted that it would not be marked down excessively. "Whether consumers think a product is expensive or cheap all depends on the balance between its appeal and price," he said. "Our ideal [for the PS3] is for consumers to think to themselves, 'OK, I'll work more hours and buy it.' We want people to feel that they want it, no matter what."

"When Nintendo was selling its 16-bit machine at around 12,500 yen ($114), we sold the first PlayStation at 39,800 yen ($364)," continued Kutaragi. "The press was saying that it was expensive, but it was a huge hit. It's the same thing with the PlayStation Portable from last year. The Game Boy Advance is a same handheld gaming machine, and it costs less than 10 thousand yen ($91). On the other hand, our PSP had cost 25,000 yen ($229). But people lined up overnight to buy it, and it sold out on the day of its launch. It all depends on whether people want it. Of course, I'm confident that the PS3 is a product that people will definitely want."

By Staff -- GameSpot
POSTED: 06/28/05 04:01 PM PST

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日本Merrill Lynch预测SONY将在第一年的硬件上亏损超过10亿美金，很有可能赚的钱不能填补亏空

PS3制造成本为$494,预计销售价为$399

Cell, RSX, BD-ROM 这3大件每件造价约为$101美金，这样就$303了
加上其他七七八八的零件，合计$494美金的造价

2000年的时候PS2造价$364，售价为$299
头一年发售时，SONY亏本4亿5千8百万美金。
不过第2年，SONY利润有7亿5千9百万美金，赚回来了

对于游戏业来说，第一年是为了抢市场份额的，亏点不算什么。
第2，第3年一般可以赚回来。

但是日本Merrill Lynch警告说这个传统有可能会被微软打破。
如果微软采取PS3发售时降价的策略，将会打乱SONY的计划。
PS3的第2年和第3年将持续亏本。

久多在Toyo Keizai采访他的时候拒绝透露PS3的售价
但提示PS3的价格不会便宜。他还说：顾客认为一个产品
贵还是便宜取决于价格和产品价值的平衡。我们想让顾客
觉得PS3是值得花时间多工作赚钱来买的产品。

当任天堂的16位机卖$114的时候，PS卖$364。媒体说太贵了，但我们成功了
PSP也一样。GBA才卖$94，我们卖$229。但人们还是半夜起来排队买。
第一天就被抢购一空。

贵和便宜全在人们怎么看。我对PS3很有信心。人们肯定会买的